extremeWeather
As average temperatures increase, scientific predictions assert that extreme events such as cyclones, droughts, floods, are likely to increase in frequency and intensity. Combined with sea level rise, these extreme weather events are expected to have mostly adverse effects on natural and human systems, especially in small islands.
The variability of extreme weather is high from different regions to the others. The South Pacific has, in particular, seen an increase activity of cyclones, especially during El Niño years. Projections show that tropical cyclones are likely to increase in peak wind speed, which could be as high as a 5-10% increase around 2050. For islands where traditional infrastructures have been replaced with modern and more expensive-to-build structures, an increase in intensity will certainly signify more damages and higher costs.
In addition to cyclones, a change in precipitation patterns is likely to occur and compromise water resources in islands. In the Caribbean region, for instance, decrease in summer rainfall will exacerbate water scarcity. The increased average precipitation in winter months will not, however, compensate from this lack of summer rain, as the islands cannot store rainwater water (which flows in the ocean increasing sedimentation because of decrease of forest cover). The Pacific islands will also be negatively impacted as a combination of decrease in rainfall and sea level rise will create fresh water shortages, compromising the health of the islanders and their ecosystems.
What is more, as extreme weather events increase in frequency and intensity, the economy of these islands is likely to suffer. The islands’ economies, in general, revolve around natural resources. Whether tourism, agriculture, or fishing, the main economic sectors will be seriously impacted by the multiplication of extreme weather events. Tourism, for example, will be negatively affected by transport and communication interruptions, loss of coastal vegetations or inland forests, loss of cultural heritage by flooding, or scarce freshwater supply. These extreme events are likely to exacerbate the vulnerability of these small island nations.